The American (USA) October 22, 2018
On the campaign
trail last week, President Trump said he had been working on "a very major
tax cut" for middle-income taxpayers. It caught many in Congress by
surprise, but on Sunday, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said he had been working with
GOP House Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady to develop a new plan that would
be presented soon. Congress is out of session, so any action is far down the
road.
Recent national
polls show that tax cuts aren't at the top of the public's agenda. A new Kaiser
Family Foundation poll taken from mid-September to early October found that 71
percent of registered voters said health care would be very important to their vote,
followed by 64 percent who chose the economy and jobs. Fifty-three percent
mentioned tax cuts/tax reform. When Fox News asked registered voters in
mid-October how important ten different things would be to their vote, 42
percent said taxes would be extremely important. The issue trailed health care,
the economy, President Trump himself, and immigration. Thirty-nine percent of
Democrats in the poll said taxes would be extremely important compared to
nearly half, 49 percent, of Republicans.
A review of the
major polls conducted since the Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017 became law show
that a lot of people still don't have an opinion about it. An Economist/YouGov
online poll from late December 2017-early January 2018 found 37 percent
supported the plan, with 39 percent opposed. Their latest, from late September
through early October, showed 31 percent in favor and 35 percent opposed. More
than a third, 34 percent, had no opinion. A Morning Consult/Politico poll from
January 2018 found 45 percent supported the law, with 34 percent opposed. In
their latest, 37 percent supported it and 39 percent opposed it. Twenty-four
percent answered that they didn't know or had no opinion. Fox News also asked
people whether they have a favorable or unfavorable view of the 2017 tax reform
law. In their mid-October poll, Fox News found that 44 percent of registered
voters had a favorable opinion and 35 percent an unfavorable one. Twenty-one
percent couldn't say or had never heard of the law. As a point of comparison,
53 percent had a favorable view of the 2010 health care law and 42 percent an
unfavorable one.
Media reporting
suggests that the new tax bill hasn't had much impact on voters. There are
several possible explanations. First, people don't trust politicians' tax cut
promises. When CBS News and the New York Times reminded people that Barack
Obama had said during the 2008 campaign that he would not raise taxes on
households earning less than $250,00 a year "by a single dime," only
35 percent said he would keep the promise, while 56 percent said he would not.
A second explanation is that most people say they haven't seen more money in
their paychecks. Sixty percent of registered voters gave that response to Fox
News in September. I've long believed that people don't separate their federal
tax burden from their total tax burden, so most people probably think some of
their taxes are always going up and that makes them generally skeptical of tax
cuts. In another question in the Fox poll, 32 percent said it had helped the
nation's economy, 25 percent hurt, and 30 percent not made much difference
either way. A third explanation is that generally negative media coverage of
the bill in our polarized country positioned opinions in place. Perhaps if
President Trump had stayed on message consistently about the economy's
performance and the role of tax cuts role in it, things might have been
different.
Will the prospect
of a new tax cut energize some GOP voters who have been more enthusiastic about
it all along? It's possible, but it's late. It's also unlikely that Trump will
stick to the script.
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