Monday, April 22, 2019

Measles Outbreaks vs Number of Cases

Kate Dixon, Health Care Policy Intern
Recently, following a large spike in measles infections in New York City, Mayor de Blasio declared a public health emergency requiring all unvaccinated individuals in Brooklyn to receive the measles vaccine. The NYC outbreak (with “outbreak” defined as 3 or more linked cases in an area) is one of six currently ongoing in 2019 (with a seventh, in Texas, no longer listed as ongoing on CDC’s website). As of April 11, the country has seen 555 cases just this year, already more cases than any other year since  2000 with the exception of 2014. Between 2009-2014, the median number of cases per outbreak was 5, while in 2015 (excluding the Disneyland outbreak accounting for 78 percent of 2015 cases) the average number of cases per outbreak was 9. Historically, the number of total cases has been highly correlated with the number of outbreaks. This year, however, fewer outbreaks are accounting for a greater number of cases, indicating greater difficulty at containment of the disease: 5 of the 7 outbreaks this year have been associated with more than 10 cases each.
Measles Outbreaks vs Number of Cases

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