Monday, June 3, 2019

Nicklaus: Activist investors aren't likely to disrupt Centene deal


Jun 2, 2019 David Nicklaus
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Centene doesn’t plan to complete its purchase of WellCare Health Plans until next year, but the deal-related drama begins this month.
Centene shareholders meet June 24 to vote on the $17 billion acquisition. Such approval is often a formality, but a handful of activist hedge funds reportedly are unhappy with the deal and may oppose it.
These investors, including Third Point, Corvex Management and Sachem Head Capital Management, want Centene to put itself up for sale instead of snapping up a competitor.
It’s a classic case of short-term versus long-term thinking. Investors might flip their shares for a quick profit if a bigger health care company were to make an offer, but Centene management has a long track record of successful acquisitions. The company’s shares have risen more than fortyfold since 2001.
“There’s been a push to get Centene to be a seller, but (Chief Executive) Michael Neidorff is not a seller, he’s a serial acquirer,” says Ana Gupte, an analyst at SVB Leerink in New York.
Chris Meekins, a health care analyst at Raymond James, also expects the WellCare deal to proceed as announced. He notes that the top-10 shareholder lists at Centene and WellCare have five names in common, all long-term money managers such as Vanguard and BlackRock. They’re unlikely to support a “no” vote that could cause WellCare shares to plummet.
Meekins doesn’t see any other managed care company making a hostile run at Centene. “You’re unlikely to see anyone come in without a fully supportive CEO on board,” he said.
Louisville-based Humana is sometimes mentioned as a possible suitor, but Gupte doesn’t see the fit. Centene’s primary business is managing state-funded Medicaid coverage, and it has built a presence on the Obamacare exchanges. Humana, the second-largest provider of Medicare Advantage for the elderly, pulled out of the exchanges last year.
“Any strategic synergy between the two is very limited,” Gupte said. “Centene’s presence on the exchanges would not be helpful to Humana, and the capital that would be required would be meaningful. From a long-term investor perspective, such a deal would not be attractive.”
A hostile move also would be uncharacteristic of Humana. “From what I’ve heard, Humana would only do a deal if the company wanted to be acquired and it was a fully supportive situation,” Meekins said. “Centene made a strategic decision, and I’m not sure anything has changed.”
Indeed, Centene announced Friday that WellCare’s CEO and chief financial officer will join its executive team after the merger, with CEO Ken Burdick signing a two-year contract. Centene promised to announce more leadership details on June 14.
“We believe the transaction with WellCare is in the best interest of shareholders as it will deliver significant upside growth and profitability,” Marcela Hawn, Centene’s chief communications officer, said in an emailed statement. “We remain as committed to our combination with WellCare today as we did when we announced it on March 27.”
To sway this month’s vote, the activists must amass far more voting power than has been reported so far. The Wall Street Journal said Third Point had invested at least $300 million in Centene, which would be a 6 percent stake. It wasn’t clear how much of that was owned by May 8, the record date for voting eligibility.
Meekins thinks antitrust clearance is the biggest hurdle facing the WellCare deal, but he expects Centene to gain approval by agreeing to some divestitures. The talk of putting Centene up for sale instead, he says, sounds more like noise than like any real impediment.

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