Friday, September 25, 2020

Good Economy/Bad Economy

 

 

By Alex Eule |  Thursday, September 24

The Pandemic Divide. Stocks rose modestly on another day of contrasting data points about the economy. While jobless claims rose slightly on the week to 870,000, new home sales topped 1 million for the first time in 14 years. It's a clear indication of the vastly different effects the pandemic is having across the country. 

Sales of new single-family homes were up 4.8% last month, bringing the seasonally adjusted rate to 1.01 million. The number was far better than expected. Economists had actually forecast a decline in August, to 898,000. My colleague Brian Hershberg has more on the numbers here

Brian also covered the stubborn jobless data. First-time jobless claims rose 4,000 in the latest week, while economists had expected a small decline. There were some positive signs, though, including a 3 million claim drop in the number of people claims for Pandemic Unemployment  Assistance.

The S&P 500 ended the day up 0.3%.

Hopes for another coronavirus stimulus package continue to swirl, even as lawmakers remain far apart on price. The Wall Street Journal reported today that House Democrats are putting together a $2.4 trillion package, a number that could still be too high to gain support from congressional Republicans or the White House.

Stocks have generally been falling in the absence of the deal. The S&P 500 is down 9% from its early September highs. But Barron's Randall Forsyth writes today that stocks might have to fall further to force a compromise in Washington. Here's Randy: 

One doesn’t have to be cynic to point out the unusual speed with which the Cares Act was put together by the Trump administration and the Democratic leadership in Congress came against the backdrop of the stunning March drop in the stock market. By contrast, the urgency to come together on a new package has been notably absent even with the S&P 500 ending Wednesday 9.6% below its peak reached three weeks earlier, just short of the arbitrary definition of a correction of 10%.

The House has managed to pass legislation to avoid a government shutdown on Oct. 1, and the Senate is expected to take up the measure in coming days. It may take steeper drops in the stock market to get Congress and the Administration to move on a deal to extend pandemic relief while consumers tap savings and credit cards to pay the bills.

 

 

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