Thursday, December 17, 2020

Quadruple Record Day

 

By Nicholas Jasinski |  Thursday, December 17

Records. The four major U.S. indexes all closed at all-time highs today, but the most significant news of the day came after the closing bell. An advisory panel of medical experts convened by the Food and Drug Administration recommended approving Moderna's Covid-19 vaccine, setting up an emergency use authorization as soon as tomorrow. That could add tens of millions of additional doses in just the coming weeks, without some of the supply chain headaches associated with the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine's need to be stored at ultra-cold temperatures.

Bill Alpert has an excellent report summarizing all the latest developments on the Covid-19 vaccine front. He also walks through what needs to happen for the vaccines to progress from emergency authorizations to full licensing, and why that distinction matters.

The path of least resistance for the market remains upward: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5% today, the S&P 500 gained 0.6%, the Nasdaq Composite added 0.8%, and the Russell 2000 climbed 1.3%. All four closed at record highs.

Other than the continued vaccine-driven optimism, the apparent progress toward a stimulus package from Congress has lifted Wall Street's spirits. If all goes smoothly, that too could be wrapped up by tomorrow. Christmas might just come early this year for investors.

Democratic and Republican leaders are reportedly close to an agreement on a fiscal stimulus and coronavirus relief bill with a price tag of about $900 billion. It would include funding for vaccine distribution, another round of direct payments to individuals of about $600, supplemental unemployment benefits, and more than $300 billion in small business relief.

State and local government budget support and liability protections are not in the package. Congress also needs to pass a bill to keep the government open before it leaves for the holidays at the end of the week.

Elsewhere in markets today, a larger-than-expected U.S. inventory draw helped lift oil prices to a nine-month high. West Texas Intermediate futures settled at more than $48 a barrel today for the first time since February.

The crude boost was also helped by the optimism over a stimulus bill, and by a steadily weakening dollar. Commodities priced in the currency—like oil, gold, or lean hogs—are worth more dollars when the value of the dollar declines.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell below 90 for first time today since April 2018. Commonly referred to as the "Dixie," it measures the dollar against a basket of other currencies. After spiking during February's and March's market turmoil, the index has declined steadily since as investors moved back into risk assets.

The Dixie's latest leg down came after the Federal Reserve's promise yesterday to keep monetary policy ultra-easy even as the U.S. economy improves. That could mean some greater inflation down the line, decreasing the value of the dollar.

 

 


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