Friday, December 18, 2020

Tesla's Wild Ride

 

By Matthew Klein |  Friday, December 18

De-Stressing. Christmas came early for U.S. banking investors Friday, after big banks fared well in the Federal Reserve’s latest stress tests. Earlier in the year, the Fed had banned banks from buying back their own stock and restricted how much they could distribute in dividends.

The Fed wanted banks to preserve capital to protect depositors and other creditors, while ensuring that lenders could still finance new loans. But with vaccinations starting and the economic situation set to improve shortly, those provisions may now be excessive. So now the banks are being graded on a different curve. As a result, the Fed announced late today that buybacks and dividends are back on the menu for 2021.

The news came too late to help stocks, which closed down slightly. The S&P 500 index of large U.S. companies and the Russell 2000 index of small ones each lost about 0.4%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was flat.

Six of the S&P’s 11 sectors fell, with real estate and energy stocks leading the declines. Materials and consumer staples had the best days. Copper and oil prices were up even as gold and silver prices fell, which suggests that the growth outlook is still robust. The copper price is the highest since February 2013, while Brent crude oil has been rising for seven straight weeks, the longest consistent uptrend since 2010.

The most exciting market action was in Tesla stock, which is set to officially join the S&P 500 on Monday. At current market prices, Tesla’s equity is worth almost $700 billion, which means it will immediately become one of the largest components in the index, ahead of every other company except for Apple, Microsoft, Amazon.com, Alphabet, and Facebook. Tesla’s stock price gains this year—up more than eight times since January—are unprecedented for a company of its size.

For some perspective, Tesla has gained $272 billion in market value in just the month since S&P announced it would be adding the company to the large-cap index. The entire company was worth $272 billion as recently as July. Meanwhile, Toyota, which makes vastly more cars at higher margins, is currently worth $213 billion.

On Friday afternoon, the stock went wild, dropping more than 5% between 2:30 and 3:40, only to jump 9% in the last 20 minutes. That kind of volatility may now flow through to the broader S&P 500 index.

Watch our TV show on Fox Business Fridays at 10 p.m. or 11:30 p.m. ET; Saturdays at 10 a.m. or 11:30 a.m.; or Sundays at 7 a.m., 10 a.m., or 11:30 a.m. This week, PayPal CEO John Rainey offers insights on holiday season retail sales, and Barron’s Associate Editor Andrew Bary names top stock picks for 2021.

 

 


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