Tuesday, April 5, 2022

No Fooling Mr. Market

 

By Connor Smith |  Friday, April 1

April Fools? Stocks played a bit of a prank on market observers. The three major indexes seemed poised for declines before rallying back in the final 15 minutes of the session.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4% on the day, though it still had a slight drop on the week, snapping a two-week winning streak. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, each up 0.3% today, managed to finish higher for a third consecutive week.

The Labor Department said the U.S. economy added 431,000 jobs in March, below economist's expectations at 490,000. But Barron's Megan Cassella writes that the number of jobs created in January and February were revised upward, bringing the unemployment rate to 3.6% in March, near a prepandemic low of 3.5%. Megan adds:

Job growth for the month was once again led by the leisure and hospitality sector, which added 112,000 jobs as businesses continued to reopen and staff up after winter slowdowns and shutdowns caused by the Omicron variant outbreak. Professional and business services, retail trade and manufacturing all saw significant growth over the month as well.

Key for the Fed is the data on average hourly earnings, which climbed 13 cents for all workers over the month to $31.73, marking a 0.4% rise in March after a minor 0.1% increase in February. Average hourly earnings are now up 5.6% over the year, in line with economists’ expectations. That reflects strong annual wage growth but a pace that is still lagging behind overall inflation. 

The strong jobs numbers, paired with continued inflation, could prompt the Federal Reserve to opt for a half-point interest rate hike soon, writes Louis Navellier, founder of Navellier & Associates.

"There's a tug of war between whether higher prices and interest rates can thread the needle and temper growth, overcoming the pent-up demand of the post-Covid reopening of the global economy, without overshooting and throwing the economy into a recession," he writes.

April 1 is often a quirky day for markets thanks to the deluge of fake announcements and facetious company pivots. But even the real headlines were a bit flashy. After all, the House of Representatives passed a marijuana decriminalization bill and an Amazon warehouse voted to unionize. And last night, GameStop, of all companies, disclosed its intent to pursue a stock split. Go figure.

Watch our weekly TV show on Fox Business Saturdays at 10 a.m. or 11:30 a.m. ET; or Sundays at 10 a.m. or 11:30 a.m. ET. This week, an interview with Aswath Damodaran, professor at the Stern School of Business at New York University, on tech stock valuations.

 

 


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