Tuesday, August 2, 2022

It Could Have Been Worse

By Alex Eule  |  Tuesday, July 26

A Deluge of News. With markets on the cusp of the biggest stretch of news in months -- maybe years -- stocks had a rough day. Sentiment was negative from the start of trading, partly in the wake of last night's profit warning from Walmart, which said that inflation was pushing consumers to spurn higher-price goods in favor of essentials that carry lower profit margins. 

Walmart closed down nearly 8%, and all three indexes finished in negative territory.

Five minutes after the closing bell, a deluge of tech earnings arrived, with Microsoft, Alphabet, Texas Instruments reporting their results. 

The numbers from Microsoft and Alphabet weren't terribly impressive with both companies missing analysts' estimates for revenue and profits. But some of the bad news seems to have already been priced in. Despite the disappointing reports, shares of Alphabet and Microsoft were both up about 5% in after-hours trading.

While Microsoft's numbers missed overall -- "evolving macroeconomic conditions and other unforeseen items had an impact on financial results," the company said -- one bright spot came from its cloud business, which continues to grow impressively. Microsoft Cloud revenue was up 28% in the quarter to $25 billion. Google Cloud revenue was similarly strong, up 36% in the quarter to $6.3 billion.

That could be a good sign for Amazon.com, the largest public cloud player, when it reports results on Thursday. Shares of Amazon fell 5.2% today, but they were up in after-hours trading tonight.

Meanwhile, Texas Instruments blew past Wall Street's estimates. The company is something of a bellwether for the tech industry and the economy. "The chip maker sells the basic building-block chips that go into products in nearly every sector of the economy from autos and industrials to consumer electronics," Barron's Tae Kim reports in his earnings story today

Another bit of good news came from Chipotle Mexican Grill, which reported an earnings beat for its second quarter. "Our pricing power is strong and the brand is resilient," CEO Brian Niccol said on the company's earnings call this evening. Chipotle said a planned 4% price increase in August would "help offset incremental inflation pressures, especially in dairy, tortillas and packaging as well as pockets of wage pressure throughout the country." 

Chipotle shares were up 8% after hours. 

When markets open for regular trading tomorrow, investors will have to make quick work of the earnings news. By 2 p.m., the focus will shift to the Federal Reserve and its latest interest rate decision. Investors are basically locked in on a three-quarter point rate increase. Anything else would be a big surprise at this point -- one that markets might not appreciate.

The Fed news and Chair Jerome Powell's press conference tomorrow afternoon will be closely followed by the first report of second-quarter gross domestic product on Thursday morning. Economists surveyed by FactSet expect growth of 0.8% in the quarter, after the first quarter's 1.6% decline. The GDPNow real-time forecast from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is less optimistic. Its latest estimate calls for a second-quarter GDP decline of 1.6%

A decline would be significant since recessions are generally defined by two consecutive quarters of economic contractions. It gets more complicated than that, though, as Barron's Ben Levisohn recently explained. Import versus export activity and inventory drawdowns could be cited as a few of the countervailing factors. Expect plenty of spin to follow the GDP report, as economists, Wall Street strategists, and politicians debate whether the criteria to define a recession has been met. 

DJIA: -0.71% to 31,761.54
S&P 500: 
-1.15% to 3,921.05
Nasdaq: 
-1.87% to 11,562.57

The Hot Stock: 3M Company +4.9%
The Biggest Loser: Fortinet 
-7.8%

Best Sector: Utilities +0.6%
Worst Sector: Consumer Discretionary 
-3.2%


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