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With a Supreme Court Challenge Looming, Swing Voters in 3 Key Sun
Belt States Give Democratic Nominee Biden a Big Advantage on the ACA's Future
and Pre-Existing Condition Protections Suburban
Voters in the 3 States (Arizona, Florida and North Carolina) are Divided in
Who They Trust on Health Care Overall, but Florida Suburban Voters Give Biden
the Edge on the ACA and Pre-Existing Condition Protections The
death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg is drawing renewed
attention to a pending Supreme Court challenge to the Affordable Care Act
(ACA), supported by the Trump administration, that threatens to overturn the
entire law, including its protections for people with pre-existing
conditions. To
assess how the renewed attention to the case, which will be argued a week
after Election Day, could motivate voters ahead of the presidential election,
KFF and The Cook Political Report analyzed recent polling from three competitive Sun Belt states
(Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina). Fielded
prior to Justice Ginsburg’s death, the polls find that Democratic nominee Joe
Biden has a considerable advantage among voters on which presidential
candidate they think has the better approach to determining the future of the
Affordable Care Act, as well as maintaining protections for people with
pre-existing health conditions. More
than half of voters in Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina say Biden has the
better approach on the ACA (55% in each state) compared to four in ten voters
who say President Trump (41% in AZ and NC, 40% in FL). This
is similar to the share who say Biden has the better approach to maintaining
protections for people with pre-existing conditions (AZ: 55%, FL: 54%, NC:
53%) compared to President Trump (AZ: 40%, FL: 41%, NC: 43%). Swing
voters, the crucial group of voters who are either entirely undecided or not
firm in their vote choice, and for some there is a chance they may vote for
the other candidate, give Biden the advantage on all key health care issues,
including the ACA and maintaining pre-existing conditions. About
twice as many swing voters across the three states say Biden has the better
approach on the ACA (AZ: 60%, FL: 69%, NC: 61%) than President Trump (AZ: 32%,
FL: 24%, NC: 33%). Biden’s advantage also holds among swing voters across the
three states on maintaining pre-existing condition protections, with more
than half of swing voters saying Biden has the better approach (AZ: 60%, FL:
68%, NC: 59%). In fact, on all key health care issues asked about in the
survey, Biden has the advantage among swing voters. The
analysis also examines the views of suburban voters in the three states on
health care, and finds overall they are divided in who they trust the most on
health care, with similar shares saying Biden (50%) and Trump (48%). When
it comes to the ACA’s future and maintaining pre-existing conditions
protections, suburban voters across the three states give Biden a slight
advantage. He holds a 10 percentage point advantage over President Trump on
determining the future of the ACA (53% v. 43%) and a narrower advantage on
maintaining pre-existing condition protections (52% v. 44%). North
Carolina suburban voters are more divided on which candidate has the better
approach to handle some health care issues, including the future of the ACA
and maintaining protections for people with pre-existing conditions, and give
President Trump a clear advantage on lowering overall health care costs (55%
v. 42%) and prescription drug costs (55% v. 43%). Methodology Designed and analyzed
by public opinion researchers at KFF in collaboration with The Cook Political
Report, the poll was conducted between Aug. 29 and Sept. 13, among a
representative random sample of 3,479 registered voters in three Sun Belt
states (1,298 in Arizona, 1,009 in Florida, and 1,172 in North Carolina). The
poll relies on an innovative probability-based methodology designed to
address shortcomings with telephone-only surveys based on either
voter-registration rolls or random-digit dialing. Voters were contacted via
mailing address using registration-based sampling and encouraged to
participate in the survey either online or by telephone, and follow-up
contacts were made using outbound telephone calls. The margin of sampling
error is plus or minus 4 percentage points in Florida and 3 percentage points
in Arizona and North Carolina. For results based on subgroups, the margin of
sampling error may be higher. Filling
the need for trusted information on national health issues, KFF
(Kaiser Family Foundation) is a nonprofit organization based in San
Francisco, California. |
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