Political Calculations | Posted: Sep 16, 2020 12:07 PM
A little
over a month ago, a wave of coronavirus infections was cresting and beginning to
recede in states across the U.S.' sunbelt. One month later,
that delayed first wave of infections that struck southern and western states
is clearly receding.
We've put
together the following three-in-one chart to show the major trends in the daily
progression of COVID-19 infections in the United States from 10 March 2020
through 15 September 2020. The three charts show:
·
A tower chart indicating the daily
progression of COVID-19 tests (light blue, outermost), confirmed active cases
(orange), estimated recoveries or hospital discharges (light green),
hospitalizations (brown), and deaths (black, innermost).
·
A line chart tracking the U.S.'
daily test positivity rate, or rather, the daily percentage of positive cases
among all reported test results.
·
A line chart showing the rolling
7-day averages of the number of reported positive coronavirus cases and deaths
per day for the entire U.S.
fter six
months, the progression of SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infections in the U.S. is as
much a story about geography as it is about an epidemic. While data for the
U.S. as a whole looks like it has gone through multiple waves, in reality, the
virus has struck different states and regions of the country at different
times, with individual locations in the U.S. only experiencing a single wave of
infections.
That dynamic
reality becomes more clear when we drill down into the Coronavirus
Tracking Project's data at the state and territory level.
State Skyline Tower
Charts
The latest
update to our skyline chart showing the progression of
coronavirus cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the fifty states and six
territories of the United States confirms the improving situation for
coronavirus cases across much of the nation.
You can see
that improvement in the 'straightening' sides of the orange-shaded portion of
the towers indicating the share of each state or territory's population that
has returned a positive result in coronavirus testing to detect active
infections. You can also see the improvement in increasing amount of 'green'
shown in many of these charts, which reflects estimates the of number of
recovered coronavirus cases or that more conservatively report the number of
coronavirus patient discharges from hospitals (some states don't report this
data).
To see the
state by state chart, click here.
States whose
COVID progression towers have bases that resemble widening cones are those that
are still facing growing numbers of cases. Many of the states and territories
in this category also have lower populations than states that have passed
through peaks in daily reported cases, which suggests future numbers of new
cases will continue to fall when compared to current levels.
Meanwhile, a
handful of states and territories have towers that look like needles when
presented on the same horizontal and vertical scales with respect to their
populations, having experienced little spread of the infection. That may not be
as positive as it sounds, because it suggests they may be more at risk of future
outbreaks because their residents will not have had the exposure that would
lead to the level of herd immunity that states with much
larger outbreaks have developed. Developing herd immunity among the portions of
the population most tolerant of the infection while protecting the most
vulnerable portions can work as an alternative strategy for
managing the spread of viral infections for which vaccines are not yet
available.
Overall,
Louisiana continues to rank at the top for percent of population with confirmed
active infections during the first six months of the coronavirus pandemic in
the U.S., followed by Florida, Mississippi, and Arizona.
New York versus...
In the next
four charts, we compare the progression of COVID-19 cases and deaths in New
York against Louisiana, Florida, Mississippi, and Arizona. Why these four
states? Like New York, each has recorded a peak value of 40 or more positive
new coronavirus cases per 100,000 residents on one or more days during the last
six months, making their experiences directly comparable in relative scale.
Although
each of these four states has experienced similar rates of coronavirus cases as
New York, each has also underrun New York's COVID-19 death tally. Unlike New York, none of
these states adopted a policy of forcing nursing homes to admit coronavirus
patients without testing to determine if they were still infectious.
Consequently, these states have generally outperformed New York in avoiding
coronavirus deaths by reducing the rate of exposure of the SARS-CoV-2
coronavirus among the most vulnerable portion of their populations: the sick
and elderly.
Of these
states, Louisiana stands apart because it has experienced what appears to be a
second wave of coronavirus infections at the state level. However, it might be
more accurate to describe its situation as the result of different portions of
the state experiencing separate waves. Its 'first wave' is attributable to New
Orleans' Mardi Gras celebration that drew visitors from
around the country, where outbreaks were largely concentrated within the
parishes making up the city's metropolitan area in the weeks following the
event.
By contrast,
Louisiana's 'second wave' has mostly taken place in the state's other parishes, where the
incidence of cases resembles the delayed first wave effect experienced by other
states.
Finally,
the Wall Street Journal has recognized Arizona's
successful decentralized approach to subduing its delayed wave of coronavirus
cases, which will come as no surprise to our
readers.
Previously
on Political Calculations
·
Coronavirus Wave in Sunbelt States
Crests and Begins to Recede
·
A Delayed First Wave Crests in the
U.S. and a Second COVID-19 Wave Arrives for Some States
·
Three Months of the COVID-19
Pandemic In The U.S.
·
Twelve Weeks of the Progression of
COVID-19 in the United States
·
United States Continues Trending
Downward for Coronavirus
·
U.S. Sees Widespread Improvements
in Coronavirus Epidemic But Develops a New Regional Hotspot
·
A Shifting Geography for
Coronavirus Cases in the U.S.
·
Most States Show Slowing
Progression of Coronavirus in Week 8 of Epidemic
·
Seven Weeks and One Million Coronavirus
Cases Later...
·
A Mixed Picture Emerges For
Progression of COVID-19 in U.S.
·
Signs Of Slowing COVID-19 Spread
Among U.S. States
·
Visualizing The First Four Weeks Of
The Coronavirus Epidemic In The U.S.
·
Visualizing the Progression of
COVID-19 in the United States
·
Introducing Skyline Charts for
Tracking Coronavirus Cases in the U.S.
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