Housing Market Update

View this email in your browser   Fact of the Day Since January 1, the federal government has published $12 billion in total net cost savings and 841,043 hours of net annual paperwork burden increases.     Eakinomics: Housing Market Update The housing market has been making lots of news lately – notably the 24 percent year-over-year increase in the median house price to $350,300 in May – so I was more anxious than usual to take a look at Thomas Wade’s latest update to the housing chart book. In light of the news, I was not surprised at the sharp uptick in house prices in recent months: It is a little surprising to see the Case-Shiller index spike up so much more than the FHFA index, but that discussion can be reserved for National Housing Nerd Day. When you scroll through the Chartbook (and you WILL scroll through the Chartbook, right?), you will notice that mortgage interest rates have ticked upwards of late, but remain historically low. No surprise there. Another thing to note is that broadly speaking all the indicators of activity – housing permits, starts, sales, etc. – show a 2021 pattern of growth, followed by a pause, and then a resumption of growth. The pause seems to reflect supply chain difficulties (e.g., a lumber shortage), and the expectation is that activity will be strong the remainder of 2021. But the shocker – at least for me – is shown in the chart below. Despite everything one has heard about everybody buying a house, the homeownership rate remains two full percentage points below its pre-pandemic peak, and continues to fall. Let me close with one caveat. All of the housing data – and economic data more generally – are typically seasonally adjusted. Seasonal adjustment make sense when, for example, you expect a temporary retail hiring boom during the holiday season. But nobody has any idea what the pandemic hath wrought with respect to the seasonal distribution of economic activity. So take any one, two, or three months of data with a grain of salt.     New Podcast Episode: The Biden Administration’s Regulatory Activity Many assumed they would see a wave of regulations from the new Biden Administration—but has that been the case? AAF Director of Regulatory Policy Dan Bosch and AAF Senior Regulatory Policy Analyst Dan Goldbeck join us to discuss everything from the Unified Agenda to climate policy. Tune in!      From the Forum   Testimony: Infrastructure Investment And The Economic Outlook AAF President Douglas Holtz-Eakin testified before the Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee on infrastructure investment and the economic outlook.     This Week at the Forum Financial Services   Supreme Court Rules FHFA Structure Unconstitutional   Tracker: The Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet Assets   Housing   Housing Chartbook Q1 2021   Technology and Innovation   The ACCESS Act Raises More Questions Than It Answers   Fiscal   Clip: The Economic Consequences Of Big Spending Plans — Fox Business   Health Care   Weekly Checkup: What Is The Status Of The Pandemic?   Regulatory   Week In Regulation: Unexpectedly Short Week Yields Modest Savings     The Biden Administration now has the ability to control all the levers of housing and housing finance policy. There remains a great deal of cleanup after the fallout of the pandemic, but it will be interesting to see how the larger vision evolves. https://t.co/jLyKiB52sm — American Action Forum (@AAF) June 24, 2021     DONATE Consider making a tax-deductible donation to the American Action Forum today to help us produce high quality policy solutions and research.     Allison Edwards AAF Press Secretary 202-909-2449   Sent by the American Action Forum 1747 Pennsylvania Ave NW 5th Floor Washington, DC 20006