Thursday, October 29, 2020

Big Tech's Big Earnings

 

By Nicholas Jasinski |  Thursday, October 29

Mean Reversion. A lackluster morning gave way to an afternoon rally today. Stocks closed with solid gains, following four days of losses and the major indexes’ worst drop in months yesterday. Coronavirus and election worries took a back seat for a day, as the latest economic data and a flood of earnings reports held investors' attention.

The S&P 500 rose 1.2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.6%. Nine of the S&P 500's 11 sectors and 433 of its components ended the day in the green.

Released this morning, the Bureau of Economic Analysis' advance estimate of third-quarter U.S. real gross domestic product came in slightly higher than economists had expected. GDP increased at a massive 33.1% annual rate in the third quarter, which follows a record contraction of 31.4% in the second quarter.

Also this morning, initial claims for unemployment benefits—a more-current economic indicator—dipped to 751,000 in the latest week. That’s high compared with pre-pandemic levels, but continues a recent improving trend.

Today was one of the busiest days of third-quarter earnings season, with 68 S&P 500 companies releasing their financial results. You can find all of Barron's earnings coverage here.

On the pandemic front, the news continued to be concerning. The U.S. set a record for the seven-day average of new Covid-19 cases, at about 72,000, and the rate of case growth was increasing in 41 states. Some state and local governments—including in Texas, Massachusetts, Colorado, and Idaho—required closures of schools or certain businesses in response to outbreaks.

No area in the U.S. has returned to the widespread shutdowns of the pandemic’s early months, but some economists warned that consumers and workers concerned about being infected could be curtailing their activity on their own.

Europe is another story, with higher per-capita infection rates across much of the Continent than in the U.S. Germany and France separately introduced new one-month restrictions to counter a wave of coronavirus cases, and there was discussion of similar measures in the U.K.

“The worry from a U.S. standpoint is that there will be a repeat for the sequencing from the first wave --  first, Europe sees rising cases and locks down and the U.S. follows,” said Jasper Lawler, head of research at London Capital Group. “This is especially true after a Biden election victory.”

The U.S.  election is now just five days away. Former Vice President Joe Biden remains the presidential favorite, but control of the Senate appears to be up for grabs. Markets hate uncertainty, but perhaps at least on that question, the end could be in sight. 

 

 


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