Monday, September 27, 2021

Bond Yields Keep Rising

 

By Alex Eule |  Monday, September 27

Yielding to Value. Value stocks are rising and tech stocks are slumping. We've seen this movie before -- and, once again, it's thanks to rising bond yields. In the wake of last week's Fed meeting, investors are refocused on rising rates. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was up for the fifth consecutive day today, settling at 1.482%. The yield is up 17 basis points over that stretch, its largest five day move since March.

Back then, you might remember, tech stocks saw a sudden selloff, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite down as much as 10% in early March. We're not there yet, but again tech stocks are feeling the brunt of rising rates. Today, the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.5%, even as the more value-focused Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 71 points, or 0.2%. The broad-based S&P 500 split the difference. It was off 0.3% on the day. 

Energy stocks soared on the day, with prices of crude oil continuing their ascent. Crude was up 2%, its fifth consecutive gain, to $75.45 a barrel, a new 52-week high. Oil is now up 111% since its October 2020 lows.

While investors have spent the last week focused on the Fed and monetary policy, the rest of this week is likely to be all about fiscal policy. Lawmakers in Washington have a lot on their plate. Tonight, Republicans blocked a plan from House Democrats to fund the government temporarily and put off a looming debt ceiling vote. From here, the negotiations will be tied up in the Biden administration's $3.5 trillion spending bill, as well as its trillion-dollar infrastructure plan, both of which face key votes later this week. 

While the shutdown headlines could get grim, investors, it's worth noting, haven't been all that bothered by past shutdowns. A default -- forced by hitting the debt ceiling -- might be a different story. 

For now, investors are betting both issues still get worked out. "Expect authorization to keep the government operating, at least temporarily, as neither party wants to get blamed for a shutdown. The same is true ultimately for the debt ceiling extension, despite the political brinksmanship," David Joy, chief market strategist at Ameriprise, wrote today.

 

 


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