Deal or No Deal?

By Alex Eule |  Thursday, October 1

Still Waiting. Stocks closed another day without a new stimulus package. While optimism around a deal seemed to grow in early trading -- pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average up as much as 260 points this morning -- investors lost hope as the day went on. The Dow ended the day up just 35 points, or 0.1%. It was a better day for technology shares, with the Nasdaq Composite up 1.4% led by stay-at-home favorites, including Etsy, Chewy, Roku, and Peloton Interactive. 

For weeks now, the stimulus potential has driven investors batty. Today, it happened all in one trading session. First, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin suggested that the White House was ready to meet House Democrats closer to their $2.2 trillion stimulus proposal, even as President Trump's Chief of Staff, Mark Meadows, said the number couldn't start with a "2." By afternoon, we were back to square one, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer telling reporters that Mnuchin and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi "still have a lot of issues of disagreement."

The lack of a deal ultimately puts more focus on the latest jobs data. Initial jobless claims dropped from a week ago, but remain elevated, at 837,000. The good news was a substantial drop in the number of continuing claims -- those collecting jobless benefits for two weeks or more. 

The more significant jobs numbers come tomorrow morning, with the Labor Department's payrolls report for September. Economists are forecasting 858,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate falling to 8.2% from 8.4%. It's the last jobs report before the presidential election. 

Meanwhile, Reuters reported that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has expanded its review of AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine, following reports of a serious illness last month for one of the patients in the drug company's trial. Trials for the the AstraZeneca vaccine have already resumed elsewhere in the world, and U.S. trials for other vaccine candidates are ongoing. But the FDA review could push back the availability of at least one potential vaccine. 

While the major stock indexes still gained on the day, concerns about re-opening delays showed up in the commodities market. Crude oil fell 3.7%, to $38.72 a barrel. Copper, meanwhile, had its worst day since March 18, falling 5.4%, to $2.86 a pound.