Hospitals Could See Over 10% Fewer Total Admissions Than Projected in 2020 Due to the Pandemic

	News Release
After a Steep Drop This Spring, Hospital Stays Rebounded by July – but Hospitals Could Still See over 10% Fewer Total Admissions Than Projected in 2020 New Medical Records Analysis Sheds Light on the Magnitude of “Lost” Hospital Admissions – and Finds that Older Americans Are Continuing to Stay Away Hospital admissions, which declined by nearly one-third this spring as hospitals limited non-emergency procedures and Americans cut back on non-urgent care, rebounded to near-normal levels by mid-summer, according to a new analysis by Epic Health Research Network and KFF. Overall, the “lost” hospital admissions between March 8 and August 8 account for roughly 6.9% of the total number of admissions predicted during the 2020 calendar year. If recent trends continue, total admissions will be down by 10.5% of predicted levels for the entire year, though they could fall further if the pandemic worsens in the coming months and new restrictions are imposed on non-urgent procedures or patients are reticent to seek care. The analysis of Epic electronic medical records data from 27 health care organizations, representing 162 hospitals in 21 states, finds that by the week of April 11, total hospital admissions had fallen to as low as 68.6% of what would be expected in a normal year. Data also show admissions had climbed back up to 94.3% of predicted levels by the week of July 11. More recently, total admissions dipped somewhat and, as of early August, were at 90.8% of predicted levels. “Our research shows that there was a decline in hospital admissions when non-emergency procedures were canceled or postponed early in the pandemic,” said Sam Butler, MD, vice president of clinical informatics at Epic and a co-author of the analysis. “The data show which areas of the country experienced the steepest declines and where admissions came back to nearly pre-pandemic levels. In the future, we’ll be able to compare this data with patient outcomes to better understand which non-emergency care is most critical.” Researchers find that the cut back in non-urgent care has been especially evident among patients age 65 and older. Non-COVID-19-related hospital admissions declined by as much as 50% among this age group and have rebounded only to 80% of predicted levels, compared to 90% for patients under 65. What does all of this mean for hospital finances? It’s unclear, though small and rural hospitals are among those most likely to face financial challenges. Hospitals have been able to tap into a $175 billion federal provider relief fund as well as special loans through the Medicare program, and they have received a 20% increase in Medicare reimbursement for COVID-19 patients.   “Hospitals are on course to see an overall decline in admissions this year of 10% or more,” said Karyn Schwartz, a senior fellow at KFF and a co-author of the analysis. “That has meant less care for Americans and lower revenue for hospitals, but the substantial federal relief directed to hospitals should soften the blow to their bottom lines significantly.” For more data and analyses about the effects of the pandemic, including racial disparities in COVID-19 testing, hospitalization and deaths, visit kff.org and ehrn.org. Filling the need for trusted information on national health issues, KFF (Kaiser Family Foundation) is a nonprofit organization based in San Francisco, California.
Contacts: Chris Lee | (202) 654-1403 | clee@kff.org Ashley Gibson | (608) 271-9000 | agibson@epic.com
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