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A Year from 2020 Election, Polling in Four Former “Blue Wall” States
- Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – Finds President Trump Is
Voters’ Biggest Motivator
New KFF/Cook Political Report
Partnership Poll in Key States Finds Solid Support for President Trump among
his Base but Democrats Have an Edge in Enthusiasm, Especially in Michigan and
Wisconsin
Progressive Stances on Fracking,
Medicare-for-all and Border Detainments May Turn Off Swing Voters
A
year ahead of the 2020 presidential election, President Trump is the biggest
defining factor for voters in Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and
Wisconsin – more often in a negative than a positive direction, finds a new partnership survey from KFF and The Cook
Political Report of more than 3,000 voters across the four previously
considered “Blue Wall” states, including at least 745 in each state.
More
than twice as many voters in these states mention defeating President Trump
(21%) as the one thing that will motivate them to vote in 2020 than offer
responses related to re-electing him (8%).
Voters
across the “Blue Wall” states – the area in the Upper Midwest that were
previously considered Democratic strongholds and where 2016 state polls underestimated
President Trump’s support – are more likely to mention President Trump as
their main motivation than any issue including health care (8%) and the
economy (4%), which top voters’ list of key national issues for the 2020
campaign. Overall, one-fourth (23%) of voters name any issue as their
main motivation for voting in 2020.
As
the 2020 race heats up, health care and the economy are the top issues for
voters but these issues may pull voters, especially independents, in opposite
directions. President Trump garners a higher approval rating on the economy
(49% approve, 50% disapprove) than on any other issue, while he garners his
lowest marks on health care (39% approve, 60% disapprove). And while half of
independent voters approve of the way President Trump is handling the
economy, most (61%) disapprove of the way he is handling health care.
Most
voters (59%) in the four states also disapprove of his job performance overall,
compared to 41% who approve. Yet, the poll isn’t all bad news for President
Trump, as he retains solid support among his base across the Blue Wall
states. Large majorities of Republican voters approve of his job performance
overall (87%) and on every specific issue tested, including the economy (94%)
and health care (84%).
At
this stage, nearly two thirds (64%) of Democratic voters across the four
states say they are more motivated to vote in 2020 than they were in 2016,
compared with over half of independents (55%) and Republicans (53%). On a
state-by-state basis, Democrats have a clear enthusiasm advantage over
Republicans in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while in Minnesota
voters in both parties are about equally enthusiastic.
Republicans’
loyalty to President Trump runs high. Most Republican and Republican-leaning
voters (73%) say they want President Trump to be the Republican nominee in
2020, but small shares (28%) of his supporters can imagine a scenario in
which he enacts a policy, or fails to enact a policy, that would result in
them changing their vote.
A Year Out, President Trump Trails the
Democratic Nominee, But 4 in 10 Say Their Mind Isn’t Made Up
Nearly
one-fourth of voters in each of the states say they are “definitely” going to
vote for President Trump in 2020, and an additional one in ten saying they
are “probably” going to vote for him. However, more voters overall say they
definitely or probably will vote for the Democratic nominee (40%) than say
they definitely or probably will vote for President Trump (33%).
While
many voters across the Blue Wall states say they have made up their mind
about who they will vote for in the 2020 general election, about four in 10
say they either are undecided (23%) or are probably going to vote for either
President Trump (11%) or the Democratic nominee (8%) but haven’t completely
made up their minds yet. This crucial group of “swing voters” make up both
those voters who may choose to stay home next year and a small share of
voters who may still be persuadable to vote for the other party’s candidate
(5%).
While Democrats Support Progressive
Platforms, Some May Turn Off Crucial Swing Voters
Voters
who say they are going to vote for the Democratic nominee in 2020
overwhelmingly think the progressive policy positions included in this
survey are good ideas, including the Green New Deal (92%), a pathway to
citizenship for immigrants in the country illegally (91%), a ban of future
assault weapon sales (88%) and a ban and mandatory buyback of assault weapons
(83%). Fewer, but still a majority, also say a ban on fracking (54%),
stopping U.S. border detainments (56%), and a national Medicare-for-all plan
(62%) – a hot-button issue in the Democratic primary race – are good ideas.
While
few self-reported 2020 Democratic voters say they wouldn’t vote for a
candidate who disagreed with them on any of these issue in the general
election, there is some evidence that some of these progressive stances are
not popular among swing voters.
Majorities
of swing voters across the four states view three as bad ideas: not detaining
border crossers (71%), Medicare-for-all (62%) and a fracking ban (54%). In
Pennsylvania, 57% of swing voters say a fracking ban is a bad idea.
This
poll also explores voters’ views on other issues, including tariffs and
trade. Most voters across the four states say recent tariffs imposed on goods
from China and other countries are hurting the national economy (55%) and
workers in their state (55%). In addition, voters are about three times more
likely to say the tariffs are hurting their families (46%) than are helping
their families (14%). These shares are similar in each of the four states.
Voter Preferences in the Democratic
Primaries
The
four state polls also test Democratic voters’ primary preferences and finds
former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren are voters’ top
choices. Specifically:
METHODOLOGY
Designed
and analyzed by public opinion researchers at KFF in collaboration with Cook
Political Report, the poll was conducted September 23rd – October 15th, 2019,
among a representative random sample of 3,222 registered voters in four
states (767 in Michigan, 958 in Minnesota, 752 in Pennsylvania, and 745 in
Wisconsin) constituting the Democratic “Blue Wall.” The poll relies on an
innovative probability-based methodology designed to address shortcomings
with telephone-only surveys based on either voter-registration rolls or
random-digit dialing. Voters were contacted via mailing address using
registration-based sampling and encouraged to participate in the survey
either online or by telephone and follow-up contacts were made using outbound
telephone calls. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish either
online (2763), by calling in to complete (255), or throughout outbound
telephone interviews (204). The margin of sampling error is plus or
minus 2 percentage points for the full sample. For results based on
subgroups, the margin of sampling error may be higher.
Filling the need for trusted
information on national health issues, the Kaiser Family Foundation is a nonprofit
organization based in San Francisco, California.
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Thursday, November 7, 2019
A Year from 2020 Election, Polling in Four Former “Blue Wall” States - Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – Finds President Trump Is Voters’ Biggest Motivator
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