Monday, January 25, 2021

Awaiting Vaccine News

 

By Nicholas Jasinski |  Monday, January 25

Another Shot in the Arm. Investors kicked off the busiest week of fourth-quarter earnings season with the highest trading volume day of the (still-new) year. It was a volatile session, especially for technology shares.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite got off to a strong start, opening with a roughly 1.4% gain. By lunchtime, the index was down 1.3%, but that slump didn't last long. An afternoon comeback pushed the Nasdaq to a record-high close, up 0.7%. I wish I could give a good reason for the wild swings, but today was just one of those days that offered plenty of theories, yet few convincing ones.

The S&P 500 closed up 0.4%, also at a record high, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.1%.

About a third of S&P 500 companies report their results for the last three months of 2020 this week, including numerous high-profile names. Microsoft, General ElectricStarbucks, and Verizon are among tomorrow's reporters, followed by Apple, Facebook, and Tesla on Wednesday.

Also reporting tomorrow is Johnson & Johnson, which will get even more attention than usual. The pharmaceuticals and consumer goods giant has promised to release clinical trial results for its Covid-19 vaccine candidate by the end of January. Those could drop tomorrow morning alongside its 2020 annual report. At the very least, every analyst on the call will be peppering management with questions about the trial.

The world could use some good news on the vaccine front. Merck said today that it would give up on the two Covid-19 vaccines it had been testing, while Moderna warned that its vaccine might be less effective against new strains of the virus.

Given the recent news headlines and first-person accounts of dose shortages in the U.S., a third vaccine would be particularly good news for cyclical and reopening-sensitive pockets of the market. Those have lagged more growth and defensive-oriented stocks over the past few weeks.

And the hopes are high for J&J's candidate, given its single-dose regimen and relatively simple storage requirements. Even if the efficacy doesn't match Pfizer's or Moderna's 90%+ efficacy rate, a good score on preventing the most severe Covid-19 cases will still have an outsize impact on the vaccination effort. A vaccine from Novavax is also currently in Phase 3 trials.

As for the current Covid wave in the U.S., the situation has quietly been improving on the national level in the past few weeks. Yesterday's roughly 135,000 new cases was the lowest since Nov. 9, according to data from the Covid-19 tracking project, and down almost 40,000 from the week-earlier tally. The national positive rate also fell below 8% yesterday, and hospitalizations are at their lowest level since mid-December.

Several individual states and regions remain much worse off than the national average, and the pandemic is still undoubtably raging and out of control in the U.S. But the overall trend is in the right direction coming off the post-holidays bump in cases.

Barron's Josh Nathan-Kazis has all the latest on the vaccine rollout and trials here.

 

 


No comments:

Post a Comment